{"id":5372,"date":"2026-08-27T06:33:24","date_gmt":"2026-08-27T06:33:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/spikestory.com\/?p=5372"},"modified":"2026-08-27T06:33:24","modified_gmt":"2026-08-27T06:33:24","slug":"10-million-jobs-bangladesh","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spikestory.com\/en\/10-million-jobs-bangladesh\/","title":{"rendered":""},"content":{"rendered":"

The government has announced a big target, 1 crore new jobs over the next five years. The number sounds encouraging, but the real question is where these jobs will actually come from, and whether they’ll be quality jobs at all. An analysis by The Daily Star suggests the math behind this target rests less on solid ground and more on an optimistic assumption.<\/p>\n

What the target actually says<\/strong><\/h2>\n

According to the government’s Five-Year Strategic Framework for Reform and Development, domestic employment is projected to rise from 6.91 crore in FY2025-26 to 7.88 crore by FY2030-31, roughly 97.8 lakh new domestic jobs. Adding overseas employment brings the total increase to around 1.02 crore. Within this target, 58 lakh jobs are expected to come from the services sector, 33 lakh from industry, with the rest from agriculture and overseas employment.<\/p>\n

The most striking detail here is that nearly 60 percent of the total target needs to come from services, a sector that currently accounts for 37.96 percent of total employment, compared to 44.67 percent in agriculture and just 17.37 percent in industry.<\/p>\n

Why such heavy reliance on services<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The government’s reasoning is that the services sector has the highest employment elasticity, 0.55, compared to 0.45 in manufacturing, 0.50 in construction and mining, and just 0.10 in agriculture. In simple terms, when the economy grows, services have historically generated the most new jobs.<\/p>\n

But recent trends aren’t quite as encouraging. Between 2017 and 2022, employment growth in services slowed from 2.6 percent to 2.4 percent annually. Over the same period, industrial output grew at roughly 9 percent a year, yet employment in the sector declined, since automation and capital-intensive expansion now let industry grow while hiring fewer people.<\/p>\n

Economists are divided<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Labor economist Professor Sayema Haque Bidisha notes that employment is currently concentrated in agriculture and low-skill services, so this forecast largely just extrapolates existing trends. In her view, services can provide livelihoods in the short term, but sustainable employment should come from medium- and high-skill manufacturing and high-value services.<\/p>\n

Dhaka University economics professor Niaz Asadullah believes reliance on services isn’t inherently bad, since modern services like ICT, finance, logistics, healthcare, education, and tourism can generate genuinely productive jobs. But he cautions that the word “services” covers an enormous range of work, much of it informal, low-paid, and low-productivity. His concern is that this forecast may really just reflect the expansion of small businesses, transport, and precarious work.<\/p>\n

Economist Birupaksha Paul puts it even more bluntly, arguing that leaning this heavily on services before building a strong manufacturing base is a sign of premature development. He points out that even in countries like Singapore, where services dominate, that sector was built on top of a strong industrial foundation. In his words, young people are opening mobile phone shops with whatever they have, and yes, that’s technically services too, but this kind of expansion doesn’t generate real economic growth.<\/p>\n

The government’s counterargument<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Manzur Hossain, member-secretary of the General Economics Division, says the services forecast is based on historical employment patterns and the sector’s comparatively higher elasticity. He acknowledges these are projections, not certainties, and that digitalization could raise productivity in some areas while reducing employment. In his view, Bangladesh still has considerable room for services expansion in transport, healthcare, administration, and emerging sectors, whereas manufacturing growth has already been factored in.<\/p>\n

Questions about the methodology itself<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Towfiqul Islam Khan, research director at CPD, questions the entire methodology behind the forecast. He notes that the calculation relies on an outdated employment structure, with employment elasticity calculated using data only up to 2017. In recent years, economic growth has often occurred without corresponding employment growth, and in some cases employment has actually declined. His concern is that relying on old data has made this forecast more optimistic than reality supports.<\/p>\n

Another problem buried inside the number<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The 1 crore figure also includes overseas employment, projected to rise from 11.2 lakh annually to 15.8 lakh, totaling 65.3 lakh workers over five years. But this is gross deployment, it doesn’t account for returning workers. The government’s own framework acknowledges there’s no reliable data on how many Bangladeshis are currently working abroad. Treating the 65.3 lakh figure as 65.3 lakh new jobs outright is therefore misleading.<\/p>\n

84 percent of the country’s workforce is still informal<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Roughly 84 percent of the country’s total employment remains in the informal sector, with the rate exceeding 92 percent among women and young people. While the government’s framework proposes formalization incentives, apprenticeship programs, and subsidies for new job seekers, moving workers into safe, productive employment will remain a major challenge.<\/p>\n

What the real test is<\/strong><\/h2>\n

According to Professor Asadullah, the 1 crore jobs target is more an expression of ambition than a reliable employment plan. With private investment weak and manufacturing already under pressure, it’s essential to clarify exactly where new productive capacity, enterprises, and professions will come from. His view and Towfiqul’s converge on the same point, the real question isn’t how many jobs get created, it’s what quality and nature those jobs actually have.<\/p>\n

Announcing a big target in numbers is easy, the real test is how closely the assumptions behind that target match reality. The more important question isn’t whether 1 crore jobs get created on paper, it’s whether those jobs can actually give people real security and fair wages. The answer to that question, over the next five years, will reveal whether this target was a genuine plan or just an optimistic number.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The government has announced a big target, 1 crore new jobs over the next five years. The number sounds encouraging, but the real question is where these jobs will actually come from, and whether they’ll be quality jobs at all. An analysis by The Daily Star suggests the math behind this target rests less on […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":5367,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[202],"tags":[2707,2706],"class_list":{"0":"post-5372","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-insights-en","8":"tag-employment","9":"tag-job-creation"},"yoast_head":"\n- Spike Story<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bangladesh targets 10 million new jobs in five years. 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